Arch Manning in Heisman Trophy
Arch Manning is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Who will win Heisman Trophy.
Price history
11¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Arch Manning wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Arch Manning
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
CJ Carr 12¢
Range
1¢-12¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXHEISMAN-27-AMANN
Jun 26, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$375
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will win Heisman Trophy
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Arch Manning wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXHEISMAN-27-AMANN
Event family
Who will win Heisman Trophy.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
CJ Carr 12¢
Current share
2%
CJ Carr
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-CCARR
Arch Manning
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-AMANN
Trinidad Chambliss
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-TCHAM
Julian Sayin
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JSAYI
Dante Moore
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-DMOOR
Josh Hoover
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JHOOV
Jeremiah Smith
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JSMIT
Marcel Reed
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-MREED
Sam Leavitt
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-SLEA
Keelon Russell
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-KRUS
Jayden Maiava
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JMAIA
John Mateer
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JMAT
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-JSAGA
LaNorris Sellers
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-LSELL
Brendan Sorsby
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-BSORS
Bo Jackson
kalshi · KXHEISMAN-27-BJACK
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.