Who will win Heisman Trophy
Leader sits at 12% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CJ Carr
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Arch Manning
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Heisman Trophy
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Arch Manning
KXHEISMAN-27-AMANN
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Darian Mensah
KXHEISMAN-27-DMENS
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Dante Moore
KXHEISMAN-27-DMOOR
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jayden Maiava
KXHEISMAN-27-JMAIA
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Julian Sayin
KXHEISMAN-27-JSAYI
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: CJ Carr
KXHEISMAN-27-CCARR
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Trinidad Chambliss
KXHEISMAN-27-TCHAM
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Sam Leavitt
KXHEISMAN-27-SLEA
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Gunner Stockton
KXHEISMAN-27-GSTOC
Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jeremiah Smith
KXHEISMAN-27-JSMIT
Analysis
The current 12% probability indicates that markets assess this candidate as having a meaningful but not dominant chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026. The Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player each December, with winner selection heavily influenced by regular-season performance, voting patterns favoring certain positions (typically quarterback or running back), and late-season momentum. The probability could shift significantly based on game performance throughout the fall 2026 season, as strong statistical seasons or high-profile victories tend to move odds substantially. The award typically sees final votes cast in early December following the conclusion of the college football regular season, meaning most price discovery will occur from September through November as on-field performance data accumulates. Contract volume of $4,286 in 24-hour trading suggests moderate market interest in this outcome relative to other Heisman possibilities.
- ›Regular-season performance statistics (passing/rushing yards, touchdowns, efficiency metrics) from September-November 2026 will directly influence final voting
- ›Historical Heisman voting favors specific positions; quarterback winners comprise roughly 50% of recent winners, affecting positional candidates' chances
- ›Head-to-head performance in high-profile conference games and bowl visibility typically drives late-season probability shifts
- ›The final Heisman vote occurs in December following the regular season conclusion, meaning current odds reflect preseason assessment before any game data
- ›Competitor field composition and relative strength of competing candidates' performances will determine whether this candidate's odds contract or expand
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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