Who will win Heisman Trophy

30-day trend

Analysis

The current 12% probability indicates that markets assess this candidate as having a meaningful but not dominant chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026. The Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player each December, with winner selection heavily influenced by regular-season performance, voting patterns favoring certain positions (typically quarterback or running back), and late-season momentum. The probability could shift significantly based on game performance throughout the fall 2026 season, as strong statistical seasons or high-profile victories tend to move odds substantially. The award typically sees final votes cast in early December following the conclusion of the college football regular season, meaning most price discovery will occur from September through November as on-field performance data accumulates. Contract volume of $4,286 in 24-hour trading suggests moderate market interest in this outcome relative to other Heisman possibilities.

• ›Regular-season performance statistics (passing/rushing yards, touchdowns, efficiency metrics) from September-November 2026 will directly influence final voting
• ›Historical Heisman voting favors specific positions; quarterback winners comprise roughly 50% of recent winners, affecting positional candidates' chances
• ›Head-to-head performance in high-profile conference games and bowl visibility typically drives late-season probability shifts
• ›The final Heisman vote occurs in December following the regular season conclusion, meaning current odds reflect preseason assessment before any game data
• ›Competitor field composition and relative strength of competing candidates' performances will determine whether this candidate's odds contract or expand

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds