Who will win the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Who will win the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing August 4, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $313 open interest, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $313 open interest, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 350% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity premium rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity, especially given the 2¢ wide spread and 475 days to expiration. The modest 1¢ price appreciation over seven days combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this niche local election market lacks sufficient trader interest to establish efficient pricing.
Resolution rules
If Yousef Rabhi wins the 2026 Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXANNARBORMAYORD-26-YRAB yes 100