Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) in the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote
Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote.
Price history
8¢ current
Contract brief
If Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30)
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) 41¢
Range
2¢-41¢
Family volume
$5
Identifier
KXIDHB932-26-W1894
Aug 24, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$497
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$5
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXIDHB932-26-W1894
Event family
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) 41¢
Current share
0%
Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-W1873
1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-COLT
M1 Garand rifle (.30-06)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-M1GA
Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-W1894
Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-M1911
Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06)
kalshi · KXIDHB932-26-REM700
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.