Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote
Leader sits at 41% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
1873 Colt Single Action Army
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
436 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt)
KXIDHB932-26-COLT
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30)
KXIDHB932-26-W1894
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)
KXIDHB932-26-W1873
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: M1 Garand rifle (.30-06)
KXIDHB932-26-M1GA
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP)
KXIDHB932-26-M1911
Analysis
Idaho is holding an advisory vote in 2026 to designate an official state gun. The Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) is currently the leading candidate at 43% probability, with the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver at 22%. The vote reflects broader preferences among Idaho voters and interest groups regarding which historic firearm best represents the state. The outcome depends on voter turnout, regional preferences within Idaho, and the strength of advocacy campaigns by competing firearm communities. The advisory vote itself will settle the question, though actual designation may require legislative action. Trading volume remains moderate across contracts, with the Winchester Model 1873 showing the strongest trading interest at $397 in 24-hour volume.
- ›Winchester Model 1873 commands a 21-point lead over the second-place Colt revolver, suggesting either stronger regional support or more effective advocacy
- ›The top two candidates together account for 65% implied probability, leaving 35% distributed across four other options including the M1 Garand and M1911
- ›Idaho's historic association with frontier settlement and ranching may favor older western-era firearms like the Winchester and Colt models over 20th-century military designs
- ›Trading volume concentration in the Winchester contract ($397) versus minimal volume in the M1911 contract ($15) suggests differential confidence or information asymmetry
- ›An advisory vote requires voter participation and turnout dynamics that could shift probabilities if specific demographic groups mobilize or disengage
What moved the line
- Aug 19Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)↓38pp46→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)↑14pp17→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40)↑11pp31→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP)↓10pp12→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 191873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt)↓5pp18→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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