SimpleFunctions

Loranne Ausley in the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election

Loranne Ausley is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election.

Price history

36¢ current

+33¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 15, 2026Jul 10, 2026

Contract brief

If Loranne Ausley wins the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Loranne Ausley

Rank

#1 of 5

Leader

Loranne Ausley 35¢

Range

1¢-35¢

Family volume

$93

Identifier

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-LAUS

Jul 10, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

36¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 10, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

35¢

Ask

41¢

Spread

Reported volume

$118

Family rank

#1 of 5

5 outcomes · Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election

Closes

Aug 18, 2027

Family volume

$93

Orderbook snapshot

35 / 41¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
35¢100
33¢200
24¢100
16¢253
15¢700
AskSize
41¢5
42¢100
43¢200
50¢100
66¢88

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Loranne Ausley wins the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 18, 2027

Identifier

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-LAUS

SF Signal
SF Index
83.86
Regime
neutral

Event family

Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$93

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Loranne Ausley 35¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

167.7%

IY (No)

48.6%

Adj IY

84%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

167.7%
48.6%
Adj IY
84%
2
Overround
-0.1%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.