Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election
Leader sits at 37% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Loranne Ausley
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Daryl Parks
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
402 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election
Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Jeremy Matlow
KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-JMAT
Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Daryl Parks
KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-DPAR
Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Loranne Ausley
KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-LAUS
Analysis
This 18% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Daryl Parks wins the 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election. The relatively low odds suggest market participants view Parks as a secondary candidate compared to frontrunners. The current probability reflects limited information about candidate strength, endorsements, and fundraising at this early stage. Key drivers would include Parks' campaign infrastructure, name recognition among Tallahassee voters, and the broader field composition—additional candidates entering or exiting the race could shift his odds. The main uncertainty resolver will be the filing deadline and primary results if applicable, which typically occur months before the general election. Early polling data, endorsements from local institutions, and fundraising reports will provide clearer signals about Parks' viability as the election approaches.
- ›Daryl Parks' fundraising totals and donor base relative to other mayoral candidates
- ›Primary election results or plurality structure if multiple candidates advance from a primary phase
- ›Endorsements from major Tallahassee institutions, labor organizations, or current elected officials
- ›Head-to-head polling between Parks and leading opponents in the general election
- ›Voter registration and turnout patterns in Tallahassee precincts where Parks has political base or support
What moved the line
- Jul 5Jeremy Matlow↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Daryl Parks↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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