Kylian Mbappe in the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Kylian Mbappe is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
Price history
15¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Kylian Mbappe
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Harry Kane 30¢
Range
1¢-30¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA
Jun 23, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA
Event family
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Harry Kane 30¢
Current share
11%
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES
Kylian Mbappe
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA
Lamine Yamal
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM
Ousmane Dembele
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM
Michael Olise
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI
Erling Haaland
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA
Vitinha
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-KKVA
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER
Vinicius Junior
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN
Declan Rice
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC
Raphinha
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-RAPH
Bukayo Saka
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK
Luis Diaz
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LDIA
Pedri
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-PEDR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.