Lamine Yamal in the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Lamine Yamal is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
Price history
17¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lamine Yamal
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Harry Kane 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM
Jun 25, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lamine Yamal wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM
Event family
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Harry Kane 24¢
Current share
0%
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN
Kylian Mbappe
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES
Lamine Yamal
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM
Michael Olise
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI
Cristiano Ronaldo
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON
Ousmane Dembele
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM
Vitinha
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI
Vinicius Junior
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN
Erling Haaland
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA
Bradley Barcola
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER
Bukayo Saka
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK
Cole Palmer
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-CPAL
Desire Doue
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-DDOU
Declan Rice
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.386
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.