Democratic party in the Minnesota State Senate
Democratic party is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Who will win the Minnesota State Senate.
Price history
81¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party wins the Minnesota State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 80¢
Range
20¢-80¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSTATELEG-MNSEN26-D
Aug 8, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$540
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Who will win the Minnesota State Senate
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party wins the Minnesota State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXSTATELEG-MNSEN26-D
Event family
Who will win the Minnesota State Senate.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 80¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.