Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. This market is pricing in a 72% probability that Likud wins the next Israeli legislative election, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—168% on the No side versus 25.4% on the Yes side—suggest significant uncertainty about the underlying assumption or potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 72% probability that Likud wins the next Israeli legislative election, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—168% on the No side versus 25.4% on the Yes side—suggest significant uncertainty about the underlying assumption or potential mispricing. With only $70 in 24-hour volume against $5,003 open interest and 559 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the market may not be efficiently pricing in the substantial political risk between now and the October 2027 close. The modest 2-cent price appreciation over seven days combined with a low Cliff Risk Index of 3 indicates relatively stable sentiment, though traders should note the resolution hinges specifically on Likud's victory rather than broader coalition outcomes.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Likud, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELKNESSET-26-LIK yes 100