Yashar · KXISRAELKNESSET-26
Yashar is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside KXISRAELKNESSET-26.
Price history
34¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election is Yashar, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yashar
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Likud 55¢
Range
6¢-55¢
Family volume
$229
Identifier
KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS
Aug 2, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · KXISRAELKNESSET-26
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Family volume
$229
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election is Yashar, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Identifier
KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS
Event family
KXISRAELKNESSET-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$229
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Likud 55¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.