Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2030. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 468% annualized return on the Yes side versus just 1.3% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues Davutoğlu's chances relative to market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 468% annualized return on the Yes side versus just 1.3% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues Davutoğlu's chances relative to market consensus. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with only $374 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With 1,482 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk score of 19, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than an efficiently priced contract.
Resolution rules
If Ahmet Davutoğlu wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTURKEYPRES-28-ADAV yes 100