Ahmet Davutoğlu in the next Turkish presidential election
Ahmet Davutoğlu is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Who will win the next Turkish presidential election.
Price history
11¢ current
Contract brief
If Ahmet Davutoğlu wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ahmet Davutoğlu
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 50¢
Range
3¢-50¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTURKEYPRES-28-ADAV
Jul 11, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Who will win the next Turkish presidential election
Closes
May 7, 2030
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ahmet Davutoğlu wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 7, 2030
Identifier
KXTURKEYPRES-28-ADAV
Event family
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 50¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.