Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
23¢ current
Contract brief
If Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD
Jul 24, 2026, 1:17 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$131
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize 23¢
Current share
100%
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize
kalshi · KXNOBELPEACE-26-SUD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 23% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.