2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end above 4.25%
Above 4.25% is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
If 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.25%
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.25
Jun 25, 2026, 5:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
14¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.25
Event family
KXUST2-26JUN30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Above 4.25% 2¢
Current share
—
Above 4.25%
kalshi · KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.25
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Odds pages
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Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.