Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a 65% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% by June 30, 2026. The 2-year yield is sensitive to near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. Rising yields typically occur when markets price in higher-for-longer interest rates due to sticky inflation or hawkish Fed communications, while falling yields reflect expectations of rate cuts or cooling economic activity. The key driver of resolution will be the Fed's next policy decision and any accompanying inflation or employment reports over the final two weeks of June. Current positioning suggests markets see a two-in-three chance of yields remaining elevated through month-end, though only a one-in-six chance they breach 4.25%.

• ›Recent PCE or CPI inflation data releases and their implications for Fed rate-cut timing
• ›Federal Open Market Committee communications, meeting minutes, or scheduled speaker remarks in late June
• ›Economic data on labor market conditions or GDP growth that would influence Fed policy expectations
• ›The current 2-year yield level relative to 4.20% and 4.25% thresholds, including daily trading ranges
• ›Market pricing of Fed funds futures contracts for the July 2026 meeting and beyond

What moved the line

• Jun 23Above 4.25%↑22pp5→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 4.25%↓22pp27→5¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Above 4.25%↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Above 4.25%↓10pp16→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds