2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end above 4.20%
Above 4.20% is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 79¢ ask, 77¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
Price history
49¢ current
+48¢Contract brief
If 2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.20%
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
Above 4.05% 68¢
Range
2¢-68¢
Family volume
$7
Identifier
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.20
Jun 21, 2026, 5:15 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
79¢
Spread
77¢
Reported volume
$512
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$7
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 79¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.20
Event family
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Above 4.05% 68¢
Current share
0%
Above 4.05%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.05
Above 4.00%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.00
Above 4.10%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.10
Above 4.15%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15
Above 4.25%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.25
Above 4.20%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
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Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.