2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end above 4.15%
Above 4.15% is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 32¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
Price history
65¢ current
+64¢Contract brief
If 2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end is above 4.15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.15%
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
Above 4.10% 74¢
Range
7¢-74¢
Family volume
$104
Identifier
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15
Jun 24, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
32¢
Reported volume
$989
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$104
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 65¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end is above 4.15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15
Event family
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$104
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Above 4.10% 74¢
Current share
0%
Above 4.10%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.10
Above 4.00%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.00
Above 4.05%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.05
Above 4.15%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15
Above 4.20%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.20
Above 4.25%
kalshi · KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.25
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.614
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 65% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.