5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end above 4.25%
Above 4.25% is priced at 79¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
Price history
79¢ current
+76¢Contract brief
If the 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.25%
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Above 4.20% 52¢
Range
2¢-52¢
Family volume
$317
Identifier
KXUST5M-26JUN30-T4.25
Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
29¢
24h volume
$76
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$317
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUST5M-26JUN30-T4.25
Event family
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$317
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 4.20% 52¢
Current share
24%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 79% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.