Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%
Leader sits at 22% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.20%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Above 4.35%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$64
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
6 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.35%?: Above 4.35%
KXUST5M-26JUN30-T4.35
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25%
KXUST5M-26JUN30-T4.25
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20%
KXUST5M-26JUN30-T4.20
Analysis
This contract reflects a 6% probability that the five-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% at the end of June 2026. The low odds suggest traders expect yields to remain below that threshold, which typically occurs when bond markets price in lower growth expectations or falling inflation. The 5Y yield responds to Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, and employment reports. Key drivers include the Fed's interest rate path and whether economic data over the next two weeks supports higher or lower rates. The June employment report (expected early July) and any Fed communications would be the main catalysts that could shift these probabilities significantly. Current market pricing reflects relatively stable expectations around Treasury yields staying contained in the near term.
- ›5Y Treasury yield last traded below 4.20% threshold; current market levels and recent trading range are consistent with contract odds
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and forward guidance on rate cuts or holds significantly influences 5Y yield expectations
- ›Inflation data and PCE readings released before month-end could shift expectations for the 5Y curve
- ›Employment and economic growth data affecting recession probabilities directly impacts Treasury demand and yield levels
- ›Volume and open interest on related contracts remain minimal ($0 24h volume), suggesting limited recent market activity and potential for wider bid-ask spreads
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 4.20%↑33pp2→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.25%↑33pp2→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 4.20%↓25pp27→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 4.25%↓19pp21→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 4.25%↓14pp35→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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