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Before Aug 1, 2026 · Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?: Before

Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 89¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 87¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?: Before.

Price history

89¢ current

+35¢
50¢75¢100¢
May 26, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Aug 1, 2026

Rank

#2 of 5

Leader

Before Jan 1, 2027 92¢

Range

28¢-92¢

Family volume

$105K

Identifier

KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26

Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

89¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

87¢

Ask

91¢

Spread

24h volume

$56K

Family rank

#2 of 5

5 outcomes · Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?: Before

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$105K

Orderbook snapshot

87 / 91¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
87¢11
86¢2.7K
84¢250
82¢500
67¢500
AskSize
91¢250
92¢500
98¢85
99¢437

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXHFHOUSING-27-AUG26

SF Signal
SF Index
6363.89
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?: Before.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$105K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Before Jan 1, 2027 92¢

Current share

53%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

148.9%

IY (No)

6670.7%

Adj IY

6364%

CRI

7

RV

239%

VR

2.06

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

148.9%
6670.7%
Adj IY
6364%
7
RV
239%
VR
2.06
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
2.2%
LAS
0.05

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.