Yes · KXMTSB542-SB54227
Yes is priced at 35¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
35¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If any Montana state district court or the Montana Supreme Court holds or declares Senate Bill 542 (2025) unconstitutional and void — in its entirety or at least as to its graduated class four property tax rates — in Hertz v. State of Montana, any appeal of that action, or any other Montana action challenging Senate Bill 542's constitutionality before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMTSB542-SB54227
Sep 19, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any Montana state district court or the Montana Supreme Court holds or declares Senate Bill 542 (2025) unconstitutional and void — in its entirety or at least as to its graduated class four property tax rates — in Hertz v. State of Montana, any appeal of that action, or any other Montana action challenging Senate Bill 542's constitutionality before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMTSB542-SB54227
Event family
KXMTSB542-SB54227.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 31¢
Current share
—
Yes
kalshi · KXMTSB542-SB54227
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
We Built a Legislation Tracker That Links Every Congressional Bill to Its Prediction Market
143 bills and 23 Senate confirmations cross-referenced with Kalshi prediction market contracts. Live data, API access, weekly status updates.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 35% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.