Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?

The 6¢ cross-venue gap (24¢ on Kalshi vs. 30¢ on Polymarket) suggests potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the Yes side, though Kalshi's thin $649 daily volume may limit execution. The extreme 471.4% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the low base rate—only a 24% probability despite 259 days remaining and recent NRC activity around advanced reactor licensing—indicating the market may be underpricing approval odds or pricing in genuine regulatory headwinds. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest this is a relatively stable, fairly-priced market without imminent catalyst risk, though the 3 Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring as we approach the January 2027 deadline.

Resolution rules

If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade