Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen before 2027?

The 24¢ Kalshi price implies a 24% probability of a NYSE-wide circuit breaker in the next 258 days, but this sits 6 percentage points above the Polymarket equivalent (18¢), suggesting either Kalshi traders are pricing in higher tail risk or the venues have different liquidity profiles. The Yes side's 532.9% implied yield is extraordinarily high relative to the modest $39.55 daily volume and $59.6K open interest, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges about market volatility or Fed policy. With a 3¢ spread and neutral regime conditions, the market appears fairly stable, though the 6-point cross-venue gap warrants arbitrage attention for traders with access to both platforms.

Resolution rules

If any New York Stock Exchange marketwide circuit breaker is imposed after December 9, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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