Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing September 8, 2027. This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $777 in open interest, suggesting limited trader conviction around Guckian's nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows minimal activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $777 in open interest, suggesting limited trader conviction around Guckian's nomination prospects. The 58¢ price implies a moderate but not dominant probability, though the wide 7¢ spread and elevated implied yields (68.8% for Yes, 74.6% for No) reflect the illiquidity and uncertainty typical of niche state-level political markets. With 510 days until expiry, there's substantial time for the Rhode Island Republican primary landscape to shift, though the neutral regime score and minimal recent price movement (52¢ to 51¢ over seven days) suggest the market hasn't yet priced in significant new information about Guckian's candidacy.
Also on polymarket at 53¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
If Aaron Guckian wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Rhode Island Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVRINOMR-26-AGUC yes 100