Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$170
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 8, 2027
382 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island
Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?: Aaron Guckian
KXGOVRINOMR-26-AGUC
Cluster 2
Will Elaine Pelino be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island
Will Elaine Pelino be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?: Elaine Pelino
KXGOVRINOMR-26-EPEL
Analysis
This probability represents the current market assessment that Aaron Guckian will win the Republican nomination for Rhode Island Governor. At 29%, the market suggests Guckian is a meaningful contender but faces significant competition. The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial race will determine the Republican nominee through either a primary election or convention process. Key factors driving this probability include Guckian's existing political profile and name recognition within Rhode Island's Republican Party, the strength and number of competing candidates in the field, and organizational capacity to mobilize primary voters. The Republican primary date and any early endorsements from state party leadership or national figures would meaningfully shift this assessment. Market participants are weighing whether Guckian can consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or maintain establishment support as other candidates enter or intensify their campaigns.
- ›Date of Rhode Island Republican primary election and rules governing delegate allocation or direct voting
- ›Number of competing Republican candidates and their respective funding, endorsement backing, and campaign infrastructure
- ›Guckian's current voter identification metrics and polling performance among likely Republican primary voters
- ›Alignment with or divergence from dominant Republican Party establishment preferences in the state
- ›Level of national Republican attention or endorsements for Guckian versus competing candidates
What moved the line
- Aug 19Elaine Pelino↓38pp62→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Elaine Pelino↑33pp52→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Elaine Pelino↑28pp24→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Aaron Guckian↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Elaine Pelino↓3pp67→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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