AfD receive at least 21% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election
At least 21% is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Will AfD receive at least.
Price history
19¢ current
Contract brief
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 21%
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
At least 11% 90¢
Range
14¢-90¢
Family volume
$100
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-21
Sep 21, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
15¢
Reported volume
$319
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · Will AfD receive at least
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Family volume
$100
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-21
Event family
Will AfD receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$100
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 11% 90¢
Current share
100%
At least 11%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-11
At least 13%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-13
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-15
At least 17%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-17
At least 19%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-19
At least 21%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20AFD-21
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 19% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.