Will Die Linke receive at least 24% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction asks whether Die Linke will secure at least 24% of the vote in Berlin's 2026 state election. At 42% probability, the market suggests this outcome is somewhat more likely than not, but still carries significant uncertainty. Die Linke's performance depends heavily on voter retention from its traditional base and whether it can maintain relevance amid competition from other left-leaning parties. The SPD's strong implied probability (86%) and the AfD's robust polling floor (81-93% for double-digit thresholds) suggest a fragmented left could help Die Linke consolidate support, but competing coalitions could pull votes away. The key catalyst will be the final election results on September 26, 2026, when actual vote shares will resolve all related contracts. Polling trends in the weeks leading up to that date will provide incremental signals about whether Die Linke maintains, gains, or loses support relative to current expectations.

• ›Die Linke received 14.0% in the 2021 Berlin state election, so reaching 24% represents a 10-point gain or roughly 70% vote-share growth
• ›SPD is priced at 86% for 7%+ (very safe), while AfD shows 81-93% confidence for 11-15% thresholds, suggesting a crowded moderate-right makes left consolidation possible
• ›CDU is priced at only 28% for 15%, indicating Berlin's electorate is structurally left-leaning relative to national patterns
• ›No intermediate polling data or major political events between today and September 26, 2026 are specified, making this essentially a snapshot of expectation
• ›The 42% probability implies roughly even odds, suggesting Die Linke's path to 24% is plausible but not the base case

What moved the line

• Sep 19At least 16%↓71pp91→20¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19At least 20%↓51pp71→20¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19At least 22%↓40pp47→7¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19At least 24%↓20pp25→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19At least 14%↑5pp70→75¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds