Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above
At least 135 million is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 11 inside Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 1.
Price history
35¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 135 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 135 million
Rank
#8 of 11
Leader
At least 100 million 86¢
Range
15¢-86¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000
Jul 8, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$44
Family rank
#8 of 11
11 outcomes · Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 1
Closes
Jan 14, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 135 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 14, 2027
Identifier
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000
Event family
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
11
Highest price
At least 100 million 86¢
Current share
—
At least 100 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T100000000
At least 105 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T105000000
At least 110 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T110000000
At least 115 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T115000000
At least 120 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T120000000
At least 125 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T125000000
At least 130 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T130000000
At least 135 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000
At least 140 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T140000000
At least 145 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T145000000
At least 150 million
kalshi · KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T150000000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.