Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above
Leader sits at 85% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 100 million
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
At least 105 million
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 14, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 1
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above?: At least 100 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T100000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 150 million fish or above?: At least 150 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T150000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 145 million fish or above?: At least 145 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T145000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above?: At least 140 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T140000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above?: At least 135 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T135000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above?: At least 130 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T130000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above?: At least 125 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T125000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above?: At least 120 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T120000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above?: At least 115 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T115000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above?: At least 110 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T110000000
Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above?: At least 105 million
KXAKSALMON-26ALL-T105000000
Analysis
This market estimates a 67% probability that Alaska's commercial salmon catch will exceed 110 million fish in 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about ocean conditions, salmon population health, and fishing pressure. Key drivers of the current probability include recent harvest data showing catches in the 100-130 million range over the past decade, with significant year-to-year variation driven by water temperature, returning stock numbers, and regulatory decisions. The market prices suggest traders view a 110+ million harvest as likely but not certain. Final resolution will depend on actual catch data reported by Alaska's Department of Fish and Game, typically available in fall 2026. Ocean conditions during the 2026 fishing season and pre-season population estimates will be critical signals that could shift probabilities notably before the season begins.
- ›Historical Alaska commercial salmon harvests averaged 105-120 million annually over the past 10 years, establishing the baseline for current probability levels
- ›The price curve shows declining probability at higher thresholds (67% at 110M, 55% at 120M, 31% at 140M), indicating trader uncertainty about upper-range outcomes
- ›Pre-season run forecasts released by Alaska fisheries agencies typically in April-May 2026 would provide concrete population estimates that could materially shift market prices
- ›Ocean temperature and freshwater conditions during spring-summer 2026 directly affect salmon survival rates and migration success, influencing final harvest volumes
- ›Regulatory harvest limits and in-season adjustments by Alaska fisheries managers can constrain catches regardless of fish availability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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