Will Alex Bores be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

The market has experienced notable downward price movement, declining 15% over seven days from 33¢ to 27¢, suggesting deteriorating odds for Bores's nomination chances. The 497.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 198-day time horizon, indicating either significant perceived mispricing or elevated uncertainty about the nomination process. With only $205.47 in 24-hour volume against $27,693.99 open interest and a 7¢ spread, liquidity is thin, which may explain the outsized yield and warrants caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

If Alex Bores wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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