Before July 18, 2026 · Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before
Before July 18, 2026 is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before.
Price history
82¢ current
+72¢Contract brief
If Andy Burnham formally holds the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before July 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before July 18, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before September 1, 2026 93¢
Range
5¢-93¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0718
Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Andy Burnham formally holds the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before July 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
Identifier
KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0718
Event family
Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before September 1, 2026 93¢
Current share
91%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.