Before August 1, 2026 · Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before
Before August 1, 2026 is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before.
Price history
81¢ current
+72¢Contract brief
If Andy Burnham formally holds the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before August 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Before September 1, 2026 93¢
Range
5¢-93¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0801
Jun 23, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$613
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Andy Burnham formally holds the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Identifier
KXBURNHAMPM-27JAN01-0801
Event family
Will Andy Burnham formally hold the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before September 1, 2026 93¢
Current share
5%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.