Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?

26¢

Bid/Ask 20/25¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $3.65·OI $15,967.1·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXSENATEMND-26-ACRA

7-day price69 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 26¢ price reflects a modest 26% probability for Craig's nomination, but the 736% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing relative to the 5¢ spread and thin $3.65 daily volume. A notable 5¢ cross-venue gap exists with Polymarket trading at 21¢, suggesting either Kalshi's lower liquidity ($15.9k open interest) is driving overvaluation or Polymarket undervalues Craig's chances. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears illiquid enough that small position sizes could move prices significantly.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 21¢(Δ +5¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 1208.0%Close-time delta 2031h

Resolution rules

If Angie Craig wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 736.3%

IY (No) 46.0%

Adj IY 368%

CRI 4

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	736.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	46.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	368%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:07:36 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSENATEMND-26-ACRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →