Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026 is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
99¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26AUG14
Jul 26, 2026, 7:35 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26AUG14
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026 99¢
Current share
100%
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26AUG14
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.