Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Market participants estimate an 89% probability that Anthropic will release the next Claude Opus model by August 14, 2026. The distribution across contracts spanning July 21 through August 14 reveals traders expect the announcement within the next 3-4 weeks, with heaviest concentration around late July. The current pricing reflects anticipation of an imminent release based on typical development cycles and competitive pressure, though the declining probability as dates move earlier (27% by July 21 vs. 89% by August 14) suggests meaningful uncertainty about the exact timing. The primary driver is Anthropic's historical release cadence and any public statements or hints about deployment schedules. A formal announcement or leaked information about launch timing would immediately clarify this uncertainty, while a mid-August deadline approach without news would gradually compress these probabilities downward.

• ›The steepest probability drop occurs between July 21 (27¢) and July 22 (58¢), indicating traders expect either imminent announcement or a mid-late-July window before meaningful delay becomes apparent
• ›Highest contract volume ($602 24h) concentrates on the July 22 deadline, suggesting this represents the modal expectation among active traders
• ›The 89% August 14 vs. 86% July 31 spread (only 3 points) implies traders assign roughly 3-6% cumulative probability to release occurring between August 1-14
• ›No scheduled Anthropic announcement date or public roadmap appears to anchor these probabilities, making the market reliant on typical industry release cycles and informal signals
• ›The multi-outcome contract structure across five specific dates allows traders to express precise timing beliefs rather than binary yes/no positions

What moved the line

• Jul 23Before Jul 24, 2026↑49pp31→80¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 23Before Jul 27, 2026↑48pp30→78¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Before Jul 24, 2026↓18pp68→50¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22Before Jul 24, 2026↓13pp44→31¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Before Jul 31, 2026↓11pp84→73¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds