What is the current probability for "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 39¢ (39% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 842.1% and 316.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has rallied 18% over seven days to 66¢, reflecting growing confidence that an AI model will reach a 1525 LMSYS leaderboard score within 76 days, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (260% for Yes vs.

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39¢

Bid/Ask 38/39¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $6.91·OI $12,030.9·Closes Jul 1, 2026·71d remaining

KXAISPIKE-26B-1525

7-day price298 snapshots · 28 regime

65¢38¢ current

Apr 935¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has rallied 18% over seven days to 66¢, reflecting growing confidence that an AI model will reach a 1525 LMSYS leaderboard score within 76 days, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (260% for Yes vs. 897% for No) suggest significant tail risk pricing. With only $800 in daily volume against $11.5k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is modest for the conviction level implied by the price, and the elevated realized volatility of 185% indicates this market has experienced substantial swings. The high info arrival rate (0.9/h) and approaching expiry create cliff risk, making this sensitive to near-term AI model releases or leaderboard updates.

Resolution rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 842.1%

IY (No) 316.3%

Adj IY 820%

CRI 2

RV 289%

VR 0.95

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	842.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	316.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	820%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	289%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.95	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:48:00 PM

Observability mediumEvent type scientific

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAISPIKE-26B-1525 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →