Any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026
525 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1525 score is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will any AI model have a score of at least 1.
Price history
4¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
525 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1525 score
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
675 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1675 score 3¢
Range
1¢-3¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
KXAISPIKE-26B-1525
Jun 22, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will any AI model have a score of at least 1
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXAISPIKE-26B-1525
Event family
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
675 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1675 score 3¢
Current share
51%
675 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1675 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1675
525 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1525 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1525
575 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1575 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1575
600 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1600 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1600
625 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1625 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1625
650 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1650 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1650
550 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1550 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1550
700 before Jul 1, 2026: At least 1700 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-26B-1700
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.