Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,549 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 2¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,549 open interest, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 2¢ spread. The implied yield of 15,611% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view a 1650+ LMSYS score as highly unlikely within 76 days, though recent price movement from 2¢ to 3¢ indicates some accumulating conviction. With a moderate cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a liquid pricing mechanism.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-26B-1650 yes 100