Before Nov 3, 2026 · Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before
Before Nov 3, 2026 is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before.
Price history
31¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 3, 2026
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 48¢
Range
6¢-48¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03
Jul 13, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$18K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03
Event family
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 48¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.