Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Before Nov 3, 2026
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
172 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-JAN01
Analysis
This prediction asks whether any current Democratic senator will publicly call for Chuck Schumer to step down as Senate Democratic Leader before year-end 2026. Markets currently assess this at 37% likelihood, suggesting traders view it as more probable than not, but still uncertain. Democratic unity behind Schumer remains relatively strong, though party tensions over strategy, election performance, or leadership direction could trigger dissent. The probability reflects a baseline expectation of party cohesion against the possibility of a significant fracture—whether due to electoral disappointment after the 2026 midterms, internal disputes over legislative priorities, or other catalyzing events. The time structure shows traders assign only 3% odds to public criticism by July 1, suggesting most expect any potential challenge would emerge later in the year if at all.
- ›2026 midterm election results (November) will significantly impact Democratic morale and factional dynamics within the caucus
- ›Current absence of public dissent from sitting senators contrasts sharply with historical precedents of party leadership challenges during periods of electoral weakness
- ›Senate Democratic caucus currently spans 51 members, meaning even a single vocal critic would trigger resolution while maintaining overall loyalty patterns
- ›Timeline shows market credence increasing substantially from 3% (July) to 13% (November), suggesting post-election period as the key decision window
- ›Schumer's legislative track record, electoral coordination effectiveness, and any major legislative defeats or victories through 2026 will provide focal points for member criticism
Recently closed in election 2026
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 1d
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 1d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 2d
- Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Coloradolast 97% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.