Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 38% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before Nov 3, 2026
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
221 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will any current member of the democratic senate caucus (including independents who caucus with democrats) publicly states that chuck schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as senate democratic leader before
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-JAN01
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-SEP01
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-NOV03
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXDEMSCHUMER-27-JUL01
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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