Will any island nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will any island nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
15¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If any island nation wins their group in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will any island nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$693
Identifier
KXWCWINGROUP-26ISLAND-1
Jun 24, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$38
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Family volume
$693
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any island nation wins their group in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Identifier
KXWCWINGROUP-26ISLAND-1
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$693
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will any island nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup 15¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 15% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.