Will any African nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
4 contracts
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
10 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will any African nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 2
Will any island nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will any Asian/Oceanic nations win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 4
Will any South American nation win their group in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This market reflects the likelihood that at least one African nation will finish first in their World Cup group during the 2026 tournament, currently priced at 34%. African representation in group-winning positions depends on draw composition, relative team strength, and performance. The probability sits well below South American nations (89%) but above Asian/Oceanic teams (9%), suggesting moderate but below-average odds. Key factors include which African teams draw together in the group stage, the strength of their direct competition, and recent tournament performance trajectories. The groups will be determined by the official draw scheduled before the tournament begins. Historically, African nations rarely top groups containing European or South American powerhouses, limiting pathways for group wins despite occasional competitive African squads.
- ›African teams' historical group-stage performance shows few instances of topping groups with European or strong South American opposition
- ›2026 draw composition will determine whether African nations face weaker opponents or consolidate in groups with fellow African teams
- ›Recent African qualifying performance and current FIFA rankings of teams likely to qualify affect competitive viability in group play
- ›Tournament format places African nations in predetermined groups where draw luck significantly influences realistic chances of group advancement
- ›Comparison to 9% odds for Asian/Oceanic groups versus 89% for South American suggests market assessment of relative continental strength in 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 24Any African nation to win their group↓36pp82→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Any African nation to win their group↑33pp42→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Any Asian/Oceanic nations to win their group↓21pp38→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Any African nation to win their group↓19pp60→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Any Asian/Oceanic nations to win their group↓16pp67→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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