Any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026
At least 65% is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 9 inside Will any LLM score at least.
Price history
37¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 65%
Rank
#4 of 9
Leader
At least 50% 97¢
Range
2¢-97¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T65
Aug 12, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#4 of 9
9 outcomes · Will any LLM score at least
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T65
Event family
Will any LLM score at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
9
Highest price
At least 50% 97¢
Current share
—
At least 50%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T50
At least 55%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T55
At least 60%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T60
At least 65%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T65
At least 70%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T70
At least 75%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T75
At least 80%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T80
At least 85%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T85
At least 90%
kalshi · KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T90
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.523
Observability
high
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 37% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.