Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects the likelihood that at least one large language model will achieve 60% or higher on Humanity's Last Exam by the end of 2027. The 89% probability suggests significant market confidence in near-term progress, though the contract ladder—where 70%, 75%, and 80% thresholds trade substantially lower—indicates uncertainty about how far performance will advance. The main drivers are current LLM capability trajectories and the specific difficulty of Humanity's Last Exam, which tests reasoning across humanities, sciences, and mathematics. Key upward pressure comes from demonstrated quarterly improvements in state-of-the-art models; downward pressure would stem from plateauing performance or test design that proves resistant to current training approaches. Resolution depends on actual benchmark results when major labs publish scores against this exam before year-end 2027.

• ›Current leading LLM models are already scoring in the 50-60% range on similar benchmarks, making a 60% threshold plausible within 18 months
• ›The step-down from 60% (89¢) to 70% (69¢) suggests markets expect meaningful but not exponential gains over the period
• ›The exam's specific domain coverage and design methodology will significantly affect achievability—different test designs may have different inherent ceiling effects for current architectures
• ›Major model releases and benchmark publications scheduled before December 2027 will be primary resolution drivers
• ›The contract implies roughly 11% probability that no model reaches 60% despite rapid historical improvement rates, suggesting non-trivial concerns about performance saturation or fundamental architectural limits

What moved the line

• Aug 19At least 50%↓17pp98→81¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19At least 55%↓12pp89→77¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20At least 55%↑10pp77→87¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17At least 80%↑8pp31→39¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19At least 70%↓7pp24→17¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds