Greenland · KXSTATE51-29
Greenland is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside KXSTATE51-29.
Price history
2¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If the 51st state is any part of Greenland before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Greenland
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
Venezuela 3¢
Range
1¢-3¢
Family volume
$572
Identifier
KXSTATE51-29-GL
Jun 24, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$369
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · KXSTATE51-29
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$572
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 51st state is any part of Greenland before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXSTATE51-29-GL
Event family
KXSTATE51-29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$572
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Venezuela 3¢
Current share
64%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.