Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?
This contract is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
5
Family volume
$52K
Best sibling
Puerto Rico 4¢
Ticker
KXSTATE51-29-VE
Market snapshot
Venezuela in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?. The displayed quote is 6¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $37K. In the KXSTATE51-29 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 5 by current quote across 5 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Venezuela
Family rank
#1 of 5
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
6¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 20, 2029
24h volume
$37K
Family context
5 outcomes · KXSTATE51-29
Quote range
1¢-5¢
Family leader
Venezuela 5¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Venue identifier: KXSTATE51-29-VE. Family volume: $52K.
Price history
6¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the 51st state is any part of Venezuela before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXSTATE51-29-VE
Event family
KXSTATE51-29.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$52K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Venezuela 5¢
Current share
69%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.