SimpleFunctions

Any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027

Before 2027 is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before J.

Price history

44¢ current

+18¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 29, 2026Jun 28, 2026

Contract brief

If any tech company officially announces One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before 2027

Rank

#1 of 2

Leader

Before 2027 37¢

Range

6¢-37¢

Family volume

$261

Identifier

KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B-27JAN01

Jun 28, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 28, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

36¢

Ask

43¢

Spread

24h volume

$92

Family rank

#1 of 2

2 outcomes · Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before J

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$261

Orderbook snapshot

36 / 43¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
36¢404
11¢16
10¢559
9¢10
5¢800
AskSize
43¢10
44¢401
68¢15
74¢56
75¢60

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any tech company officially announces One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXCOMPANYACTIONLAYOFF-B-27JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
332.17
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before J.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$261

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Before 2027 37¢

Current share

35%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

332.2%

IY (No)

114.6%

Adj IY

332%

CRI

2

RV

349%

VR

1.93

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

unknown

Full indicator table

332.2%
114.6%
Adj IY
332%
2
RV
349%
VR
1.93
IAR
0.9/h

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Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.