Ariana Grande · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01
Ariana Grande is priced at 49¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 94¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01.
Price history
49¢ current
Contract brief
If Ariana Grande is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ariana Grande
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Michael Jackson 3¢
Range
2¢-3¢
Family volume
$50
Identifier
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-ARI
Jun 24, 2026, 11:37 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
94¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$50
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ariana Grande is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-ARI
Event family
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$50
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Michael Jackson 3¢
Current share
0%
Michael Jackson
kalshi · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-MIC
BTS
kalshi · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-BTS
Olivia Rodrigo
kalshi · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-OLII
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-ARI
Justin Bieber
kalshi · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26AUG01-JUS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.