at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates to win their 2026 Senate primaries
Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota is priced at 90¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
90¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$35K
Identifier
KXGOPSENATEPRIMARYCOMBO-26NOV03
Jun 26, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$537
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$35K
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXGOPSENATEPRIMARYCOMBO-26NOV03
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota 90¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.