Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota?

This market is pricing a near-coin-flip outcome (49¢) for at least 5 of 6 Republican primary wins, but the extremely thin liquidity ($34 24h volume, $6,360 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true consensus. The annualized implied yield of 191.5% for Yes positions is exceptionally high relative to the risk-adjusted yield of 96%, indicating either significant market inefficiency or substantial uncertainty baked into the pricing given the 198-day timeframe to multiple primary elections.

Resolution rules

If at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.

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