Australia · KXWCQUAL-30
Australia is priced at 94¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXWCQUAL-30.
Price history
94¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Australia qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Australia
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Mexico 92¢
Range
16¢-92¢
Family volume
$3
Identifier
KXWCQUAL-30-AUS
Jul 27, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCQUAL-30
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
Family volume
$3
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Australia qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
Identifier
KXWCQUAL-30-AUS
Event family
KXWCQUAL-30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Mexico 92¢
Current share
0%
Mexico
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-MEX
Australia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-AUS
Italy
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-ITA
Korea Republic
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-KOR
Switzerland
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-SUI
Denmark
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-DEN
Canada
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CAN
Qatar
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-QAT
Panama
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-PAN
Bosnia and Herzegovina
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-BIH
Czechia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-CZE
Slovakia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-SVK
Ireland
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-IRL
South Africa
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-RSA
Northern Ireland
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-NIR
North Macedonia
kalshi · KXWCQUAL-30-MKD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.